Eerie Calm in the Foreign Exchange Market north Overview: The foreign exchange market is quiet, and the US dollar is slightly softer against most of the G10 currencies, though the Australian and Canadian dollar are struggling. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer. The market seems optimistic that the US-China trade tensions can [...]
Week Ahead: Impasses Between US and China and Between Republicans and Democrats north There are several moving pieces in the broad macro story that are not going to be resolved in coming days. Although President Trump is playing down a "trade war" with China, it is difficult to see the basis for a deal when he meets with China's Xi at the end of the month in South Korea. The US [...]
Fear Grips the Capital Markets north Overview: The pendulum between fear and greed is swinging toward the former today. The large write-downs at a couple of US regional banks follow high-profile collapses of Tricolor and First Brands. They play on fears of mounting late-cycle stress. US bank reserves have also fallen through a [...]
Thoughts on the Dollar north Most investors don’t have direct exposure to the currency mix that makes up the Dollar Index (DXY), but that doesn’t mean it’s irrelevant. Far from it. DXY offers a useful lens through which to view the broader forces shaping the dollar’s direction. And because it’s an index, it tends to trend [...]
FX Moves Tentatively, While Equities and Gold Continue to March Higher north Overview: The US dollar is mostly a little softer ahead of the start of the North American session. Participants do not seem to have much short-term conviction amid the heightened tensions between the US and China and wary of political developments in France and Japan. Against several pairs, [...]